I was taken aback when I heard the word “rain” in the forecast today!  Could it be?  Are the monsoons actually knocking at the Valley’s door?  YES!  And, not a moment too soon.  Saturday’s high is supposed to hit 116 😦

(Courtesy of Sarah Walters12 News)

It’s going to be slightly cooler today as a storm skirts north of Arizona, pushing high pressure east and allowing it to tap into monsoon moisture. That increase of moisture will drop temperatures to right around 110 for high temperatures… still quite HOT, so the Excessive Heat Warning continues until 8pm. The warning is not only in effect for the hot afternoon temps, but also the warm morning with temps in the 80s and 90s.

That increase in humidity from the south will also bring an increased chance of showers and storms to the higher elevations along the Mogollon Rim and southeast Arizona. This means that we could see blowing dust and sand in the Valley this evening, from the storms that develop around us. There’s even a slight chance of an isolated Valley storm, but more than likely, we’ll just see partly cloudy skies, with a few sprinkles possible, along with breezy conditions.

The storm moving north of the state will bring strong winds with it as well. Valley gusts will near 30 mph this afternoon and evening, and up to 50 mph winds are expected up north. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for northwest Arizona, including Kingman, until 9pm for those strong winds and humidity levels less than 15%. Wind Advisories are in effect for northern Arizona, including Flagstaff, for those gusts to 50 mph.

Thursday temperatures will drop a few degrees more, as humidity sticks with us. Temps will drop below heat warning criteria and there aren’t expected to be any, at this time. We’ll keep the chance of afternoon thunderstorms along the Rim, and in southeast Arizona. Storms that do develop could send a wall of dust our way from the south. We’ll also keep the chance of Valley sprinkles in the forecast for Thursday as well.

By Friday, our “monsoon high” begins to shift west again, as that storm to our north, exits. This will be a more favorable position to dry out a bit and warm those temperatures back up near 115 on Friday and Saturday. No heat warnings have been issued at this time, but if the forecast holds true, more than likely they will be issued for Friday and Saturday.

As quickly as the high shifts west, late Saturday, it makes its trek east again, bringing that monsoon moisture back into Arizona. Saturday and Sunday look to be a better chance of higher elevations thunderstorms, and even a slight chance of seeing Valley storms as well. Temps will also slowly come down, as we head toward your 4th of July. Even though temps will be closer to average, it will be quite humid at this time, as the chance of storms continues on the 4th as well.


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